7 to 10

So that's the range most "bracketologists" have the UW men's basketball team falling into, when the NCAA tournament seeds come out on Sunday. (See here for a handy synopsis.) Right now, most of the prognosticators seem to have UW as a 9 seed. And history shows that that would be, well, unfortunate. An explanation requires us to think about how the brackets actually look.

In each of the four regions, the 9 seed plays the 8 seed in the first round. So, usually this will be a decently tough match-up with another team that's relatively even with your squad. And the statistics bear this out, as the results of that game are pretty even (9 seeds have won 52 8/9 games; 8 seeds have won 44 of these games). The problem is that the winner of this game plays the winner of the 1 v. 16 seed. Considering that no 1 seed has ever lost in the first round, winning this game is a near lock to face one of the top four teams in the country. This sounds tough, and history shows that it has been-- 8 seeds have managed to beat 1 seeds 20% of the time, but 9 seeds have beaten 1 seeds only 6% of the time. Ouch. And that's currently where UW is projected to be seeded.

(UW has had mixed results with this seeding. In the 2000 Final Four year, they were an 8 seed, and beat 1 seed Arizona in the second round. In 1994 though, the Griffith/Webster/Finley/Stu Jackson year, they won their 8/9 game, and then got bounced hard by 1 seed Missouri.)

Thus, the far preferable option would be for UW to dodge a 1 seed for as long as possible. Given UW's resume, a 7 seed seems to be the highest they could reach. A 7 seed plays the 10 seed in the first round, and the winner of that game plays the 2 seed (unless a 15 plays an upset). As you'd expect, 7 seeds beat 10 seeds most of the time (62% of the time). But oddly, 10 seeds, if they manage to advance, are historically far more likely to beat 2 seeds than 7 seeds are. Namely, 10 seeds have beaten 2 seeds 44% of the time. 7 seeds have beaten 2 seeds 29% of the time. Thus history says that being a 10 seed might actually improve UW's chances of making the Sweet Sixteen, more than being a 7 seed. Weird, huh?

So as a UW fan, where does this leave us? Obviously, you want UW to win every game, especially against other douchey Big Ten teams that nab our recruits (cough, Evan Turner, cough; yes, I'm bitter). But if UW wins today and goes out and loses to Sparty, probably nothing changes. They stay an 8 or 9 seed. If they win today, beat Sparty or the Goofs tomorrow, and make it to the finals of the Big Ten tournament, I think there's a decent chance they could get bumped to a 7 seed. That would be excellent. But then again, history shows that UW might be best served by being a 10 seed. That would require losing to The Ohio A&M College today, most likely, something that would place UW, in my opinion, squarely on the bubble again. And nobody but some typically spastic Buckeye fan would want that. But still, there's your silver lining if Evan Turner, BJ Mullen's struggling goatee, and Coach Matta and his Judge Alvin Valkenheiser nose (yeah, I'm referencing the worst Chevy Chase movie ever) manage to take the Badgers this afternoon.

Note: statistics were derived from this extremely helpful website.

What We've Learned So Far...

Two Big Ten games against traditional powerhouses, two close losses. Bummer. As there was no 19-point lead blown, and Ohio State is a far better team than Michigan, and since the bloom is already off the rose, I'm not as upset as last weekend. But I feel like we've learned a couple things about this Wisconsin team in the past two games, and, unfortunately, they're not good. They are that:

- The defense, despite being about half seniors, is still making serious mental errors. The last minute touchdown scramble to Pryor serves as the most obvious example. I know they wanted to conserve the last timeout for the offense, but just call it already. One of th linebackers needs to step up and make that decision. And the two wide open passes on that drive where the defensive backfield was misaligned, also serve as an example of unclutch mental mistakes. The defense has a lot of talent, as it displays pretty often. But the Badger defenders just doesn't have it all together, at least not right now. This is the problem with starting the conference season with such tough games-- you don't have any time to get your act together.

- Despite all our hopes, Evridge has not been an improvement over Donovan. Donovan had serious vision issues, held the ball too long, was tiny, and had modest accuracy and arm strength. But he was a fluid, natural runner, and a seriously tough nut. While Allan looks more like the part, so far this season he's basically been Donovan without the running ability. He holds the ball forever, doesn't seem to see the whole field, and isn't particularly accurate. His tendency to drop back and hold onto the ball for too long may be due to a lack of experience-- he takes too long to go through his reads, he doesn't have a clock in his head, he lacks a feel for the pass rush. I guess this is what happens when you start a fifth-year senior who has only played a handful of games. Experience, particularly game experience, is likely the best tutor for a quarterback. The more game reps, the more confident a QB becomes, and the faster he can make decisions. Thankfully, while the Badgers' Big Ten title hopes may be over (although I could definitely see Illinois, PSU and OSU losing twice each), the season is not. There's a lot of time for Allan to learn, grow, and start making better decisions.

It's true, the Badgers were very, very close to being 5-0. Evridge holds onto one more fumble at Michigan, or his pick-six gets knocked to the ground, or the Badgers convert one more of those first half turnovers into a touchdown, they win that game. Someone dives on that Hartline fumble on Ohio A&M's last drive, the Badgers can probably squeak out a win. Wisconsin is still a good team, despite the fact that they won't be ranked come tomorrow evening. And there's still lots to play for. I think they can take PSU next week. But Evridge needs to improve quickly (especially with PSU's excellent pass rush), and the defense needs to batten down the hatches.

p.s. I encourage Randy to craft a post entitled "Circling the Wagons."

Excellent Advice . . .

. . . for Ohio State fans visiting Madison tomorrow evening, from contributor Randy Moss--- "Keep your head on a swivel."

Before the Madness, Some Football News

First off, the Packers finally signed a free agent-- agreeing to a two year deal with linebacker and former St. Louis Ram Brandon Chillar. The apparent point of this deal is to give the Packers some more depth at linebacker (they basically had none this past season) and to create some competition with Brady Poppinga, or to allow Poppinga to do some other things besides try to jam tight ends (like rush the passer). Chillar's only 25 and was a fourth round draft pick from UCLA in '04, and interestingly is one of the few Indian-Americans (that is, a descendant from people who lived in India) in the NFL.

Second, I can't decide whether I'm happy or unhappy that the number one high school senior in the football-playing universe, Terrelle Pryor decided to go the Ohio A&M College. I guess it's good for the Big Ten to have really talented players, but at the same time I'm not looking forward to him running around Badger defenders for four straight seasons. I'm sure I'd feel worse if he went to Michigan (who I dislike more than OSU for some reason), or if Wisconsin had been trying to recruit him. Does it really matter if your league is really strong though? Or would you trade a really good record every year for other people mocking your league and your schedule? I think I'd prefer the latter. Also, it's worth noting that Pryor referred to his future college as "the University of Ohio State."

What can you say?

UW just keeps finding a way to win. Total ugliness but clutch three point shooting in the first half, then mistake free basketball in the second, but poor shooting. Ohio State scored 7 points in the last ten minutes of the game. UW hardly shot any free throws and gave up a bunch of offensive rebounds, and turned the ball over a dozen times in the first half, but still came out on top. Craziness. Random thoughts--

- The most interesting development in this recent string of big victories is Flowers and Bohannon getting hot from outside. Both have been stroking it of late, and made three pointers will make up for several other ugly possessions. Flowers is having a hell of a senior year. He may not make first or second team all-Big Ten, but if you did an All-League Senior team, he would have to be on it.

- Did Hughes score any points this afternoon?

- Does it seem like OSU has more talent than the Badgers but significantly worse results? I know they lost four starters, but they have three seniors on the team, and a lot of talented guys, so it still seems to me like they're underperforming this year. They don't seem to play that intelligently, especially on offense, and they're just not that cohesive. I guess you could say it's youth, but Cook, Lighty, Oden and Conley all played huge minutes for them last year. Also, did you see all the empty seats in Columbus? OSU is on the bubble, they're playing against a top ten team who was their biggest in-conference rival last year, in the middle of the afternoon on Sunday, and there are hundreds of visibly empty seats? Sure, the drop-off from Conley and Oden is a bummer, but come on. Get some loyalty, Buckeye fans. Maybe last year's success in football and basketball spoiled them.

- That was the last tough road stretch of the regular season. Coming out 2-0 from games at Illinois and at Columbus was enormous. Crazy to think that the only road games Wisconsin has lost this season, so far, are at Duke and Purdue. UW now has home games against Sparty and Penn State, and then finishes at Northwestern. (I won't even get into how nerve-racking an ugly game in Evanston could be with a possible league crown on the line. Ugh.) Sparty should be tough stuff, although they've laid some huge eggs on the road this year. I'm sure they'll be looking to redeem themselves and get some momentum going for post-season runs. Penn State has been adapting to losing Claxton and is playing far better than they were when UW hammered them.

- It's interesting to see that Tim Jarmusz, who I earlier criticized for not redshirting this season, has gotten over ten minutes in both of the last two games. He hasn't been an impact player, and he doesn't wow you with his physical abilities, but he hasn't had any huge screw-ups, and he's been able to deepen what had been a three guard rotation. Sounds like he's just been busting his ass in practice, and earned his minutes. Way to go, Tim. Guess I should have been on the former (Madison Memorial) Spartan, Nankivil, to redshirt instead. I was wrong, although I maintain my position that five free years at UW is not something that should be scoffed at. Anyhow, this is a positive development, and it's good to see the team will have some guard depth next year after Flowers graduates.

- Was anyone else a little embarrassed that this ugly a game was nationally televised on a major network? And right after a Notre Dame-Syracuse game where the scores were in the 90s? Any of the Indiana or Purdue games would have been preferable. Also, it has become clear that Billy Packer just makes things up in order to have something to say. For example, toward the end of the game, Diebler for OSU was being guarded by the Hoft, and he slipped and fell to the ground, and called a timeout. Packer said that Krabby tripped him. The Hoft did not get anywhere close to tripping him. Earlier, Flowers hit Bohannon on a nice in-bounds pass for a quick lay up. Packer said Bohannon's man got cut off by a "backside screen". I rewound and watched the play repeatedly. J-Bo's defender was not only not "screened," he wasn't even touched by any player, either on OSU or Wisconsin. Packer also kept saying that J-Bo was unable to drive to the basket, a fact that was been repeatedly disproven over the past few weeks. In summary, Packer makes things up and does a poor job of scouting the teams he "covers". He makes me yearn for Big Ten Network color commentating, which for those of you who don't have BTN, is really saying something.

UPDATE-- The Journal Sentinel's coverage of the game says it was played "in front of a sellout crowd of 19,049." Sellout? Maybe. But there's no way in hell there were 19,000 people in that place.