Yeah, so I went to the Wisconsin-Michigan basketball game yesterday with a good friend who's a Michigan alum. (He was not the dick Michigan fan shouting "Miss it!" in an otherwise deathly quiet Kohl Center when the Badgers were shooting free throws.) As many folks are saying, this is a win that puts the Badgers in reach of the tournament. A win at Minnie this week (followed up by a home win over Indiana) would seal it I think. With a loss at Minnie, and a win over IU, I think I'd want a first round win in the Big Ten tournament before I'd be relatively comfortable with their chances. Yeah, I know their RPI is good, and their strength of schedule is excellent, but still. I'd like them to be safe. Anyhow, various observations:
- UW and Michigan are sort of like polar opposites. Michigan starts a guy who was a walk-on. Pretty much all of their seniors are former walk-ons, and most of them (like Lee and Merritt) play a fair amount. The point is, they have little depth. DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris are burgeoning stars-- true sophmores with legitimate All-conference ability. Zach Novak, their pure shooter 2-guard is a true frosh. Everyone else on that team is pretty fungible. They lack solid role players. UW, by contrast, seems to have a team full of solid role players-- Bohannon is an excellent spot shooter, Krabby is a fine defender and excellent rebounder, etc. But I don't know if UW has a guy with the ceiling that Sims and Harris have. Maybe Leuer. Sometimes Pop, I guess, but he only has one season left. Anyhow, it made for a funny contrast.
- So the Pops' seats are at the baseline, about ten rows up behind the visiting bench. They're good seats, and thus we're surrounded by the Madison bourgeoise-- a class that seems to be rapidly aging, and growing increasingly persnickety. That is, clapping or shouting during Michigan's offensive possessions (along with the student section) earned me a bevy of stinkeyes from the folks in the rows in front of me. Particularly from this pallid high schooler who was a ringer for the bizarre arty son in Wedding Crashers, and a red-sweatered sextegenarian working a salt-and-pepper afro. Sorry, folks, I like to cheer, and I think making things loud for the opposing team helps UW's cause. We also got some hilarious chatter from the retirees behind us about the referreeing. Apparently every time Marcus Landry touched the ball he got fouled. Who knew? (I tried to get my UM fan to appreciate the comedic value of their complaining. Like the time they started complaining about Michigan goaltending on a rebound on the far baseline--those seats have the worst angle in the stadium for making that call.)
- Whenever the typical Jarmusz-for-Krabby substitution occurred, I experienced a feeling of dread. Don't know why, and I'm not sure if the Badgers' performance merited that feeling. As much as I'd like Timmy to be the new Krabby, I'm just not seeing it-- maybe the new Clayton Hanson, if Hanson was taller and somewhat afraid to shoot...
- I don't know if Michigan will make the tourney or not. I think they have one more conference game. If they win that, and win their first rounder in the Big Ten tournament, then maybe? My buddy kept ranting about how they were the worst road team in the conference-- even when I pointed out that Iowa and Indiana are clearly worse. Anyhow, their best players (Sims and Harris) are both sophs. Novak is a frosh. Transfer Lucas-Perry (who has fallen out of favor, but is still pretty talented) is a soph. They have four decent looking prospects coming in next year, including the 14th rated point guard in the country. Their zone defense in the last 8 minutes of the first half was excellent. I look for them to get better and better in the next few years, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Sims leave early.
- Anyhow, this was a bit of an ugly game. UW was dominant in the first ten minutes, with Michigan coming out man-to-man, and getting owned. Then Wolvie switched to zone and (after a few mintues) really established themselves, and UW did their uber-frustrating "pass the ball around the perimeter until the shot clock is almost up" thing, or turned the ball over. At the other end, UM drained a bunch of threes. During that strech, UW scored once in 8 minutes. Ugh. Thankfully, Hughes and Boyanyon each nailed a three to make the halftime score respectable. Then, to start the second half, UW either put the clamps down defensively, or Michigan went into the dumper. Either way, again, Michigan scored one basket in the first ten minutes of the second half. But the pace was so slow, or UW wasn't hitting enough shots, so they only built up a nine-point lead. Yeesh. It was ugly and semi-tightly contested from then on, especially, as a UW fan, all the missed free throws down the stretch. Not a pretty game. Good thing it was on the Big Ten Network.
- Speaking of free throws, the students need to start doing something when the Badgers are shooting charities. It's too quiet, enabling spoiler visiting fans to be heard. Unfortunatley, given the administration's successful effort to muzzle the student section, I doubt anyone will come up with anything. Speaking of that, there were a lot of empty seats in the lower bowl of the student section. A lot of kids standing around, a fair number sitting, many not really into the game, not dancing with the band. Again, the university needs to change the way they allocate tickets so that passionate student fans get the prime seats down low. The student section was helpfully loud at times, but compared to years' past, it was lame. Come on, Biddy! UW's lost more home games since the student ticket policy was changed than the previous four seasons combined. Time to try something new.
- Final note--for post-game munchies, I can highly recommend the chorizo-egg torta at this establishment, very conveniently located for those heading out of town to the East (just between East Wash and Willie Street).
Showing posts with label UW Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UW Basketball. Show all posts
Monday, March 02, 2009
Thursday, March 20, 2008
The Cal State Fullerton Titans
Since I don't have a videotape lackey, I must rely on statistics to scout out the Badgers' first round opponents. As many articles have related, California State University at Fullerton (CSF) is a small team that plays at a fast pace. How fast? Well, of over 340 Division-I basketball teams, CSF plays at the 15th fastest pace. The only team UW has played that runs at a faster pace is Duke, who's 13th. (Uh oh. See here.) UW, conversely, is way way down at the end of that list, among the slowest paced teams in the nation. Not as slow as, say, Georgetown or Washington State, but pretty darn slow.
Why does this matter? Well, UW likes to slow things down because they value each possession. Bo's a believer in the points per possession statistic, and has figured out that if you can average a decent rating there (say slightly over 1) then you tend to win. So, from their perspective, it doesn't really matter how many raw points you score. What matters is being efficient with your opportunities-- taking high quality shots, drawing fouls if you can (free throws are the some of the easiest shots), and not turning the ball over. The same theory applies to defense-- play tough defense on each possession, try not to foul, and don't turn the ball over so the other team gets easy fast break opportunities. This theory works well if you've got solid post players (post shots are generally high quality and putting the ball in the post increases your chances of drawing a foul or creating an open jumper for a teammate). Wisconsin's been lucky enough to have guys like Mike Wilkinson, Alando, and this year Butch and Landry-- all of whom are solid inside players. That's also why Wisconsin runs the swing-- in it, everyone can post up and it's premised on hunting around for the best posting match-up. This offensive theory may not work as well if you're more perimeter dominated, or if you lack guards who can function as post players.
CSF is definitely perimeter oriented. (See their stats here.) A smaller, quicker team that's full of good shooters is often best served by running the ball up the court and taking faster shots. This prevents opposing teams' big men from running back and clogging up the lane, and is the smaller team's best shot at efficient offense. These types of teams may stress turnovers as a way to get even more easy baskets. And as a successful small team, CSF is very good at creating turnovers (they're 50th in the country), and they shoot a high percentage (18th in shooting percentage). That all makes sense because turnovers often lead to easy baskets. CSF is also surprisingly smart with the ball for a fast paced team. They, like UW, don't turn the ball over very often (37th lowest turnover percentage). That may be because they shoot before they have a chance to travel or make a bad pass.
Oddly, that's fine by UW's standards. UW isn't a turnover forcing defense. I think they've figured out that trying too hard to create turnovers often leads to too many fouls, and thus sort of cancels out the benefit of getting the turnover. UW wants to get back on defense and force you into tough jump shots with their five-on-five defense. And they've been fabulous at doing that this season.
To get to the point, CSF's whole system depends on creating turnovers, pushing the pace, and getting easy baskets. UW's whole system depends on judicious offense and full-team defense. I doubt that UW will have a ton of turnovers in this game, so that should crimp CSF's style, though they guards will likely play Marquette and Purdue style pressing, handsy, man-to-man D. If CSF can't get turnovers, what they'll probably try to do is run back after long rebounds and maybe take pull-up jumpers in semi-transition-- like when it's 4 on 4 or 3 on 3. I really think that's CSF's shot-- try to create turnovers, and if that doesn't work try to get decent looks in semi-transition. I could totally see them shooting a lot of semi-transition threes (and they're quite good shooters generally, so this is something to be concerned about). If CSF is getting good looks that way, I bet Bo pulls Butch and Stiemsma and puts a Hughes, Flowers, Bohannon, Krabby, Landry combo on the floor. Maybe with some relief minutes from Jarmusz and Leuer. I think that should throw a wrench in the semi-transition offense for CSF, and would still allow Landry to operate in the post. I could see him having a big game, and our traditional "bigs" not playing that much. Kind of like what happened against Northwestern in Madison-- Butch and Stiemsma were pretty quiet and Landry had 20 points. It'd be funny, since one of the other stories leading up to this game is our height vs. their lack of height.
Anyway, that's what to look for-- UW forcing them into contested jumpers with their half-court defense, and UW not turning the ball over. If those things happen, you have to like UW's chances. CSF's defense isn't that great besides their ability to create turnovers (they're decent defensive rebounders, but they give up high shooting percentages), so if the Badgers hold onto the ball they should get good shots off or get fouled. A good development to look for would be some of CSF's forwards getting into foul trouble, since they're not a deep team and that means UW is running their offense effectively. Anyhow, as Badger fans lets hope that UW rolls and crushes Cinderella's slipper. Game on.
Why does this matter? Well, UW likes to slow things down because they value each possession. Bo's a believer in the points per possession statistic, and has figured out that if you can average a decent rating there (say slightly over 1) then you tend to win. So, from their perspective, it doesn't really matter how many raw points you score. What matters is being efficient with your opportunities-- taking high quality shots, drawing fouls if you can (free throws are the some of the easiest shots), and not turning the ball over. The same theory applies to defense-- play tough defense on each possession, try not to foul, and don't turn the ball over so the other team gets easy fast break opportunities. This theory works well if you've got solid post players (post shots are generally high quality and putting the ball in the post increases your chances of drawing a foul or creating an open jumper for a teammate). Wisconsin's been lucky enough to have guys like Mike Wilkinson, Alando, and this year Butch and Landry-- all of whom are solid inside players. That's also why Wisconsin runs the swing-- in it, everyone can post up and it's premised on hunting around for the best posting match-up. This offensive theory may not work as well if you're more perimeter dominated, or if you lack guards who can function as post players.
CSF is definitely perimeter oriented. (See their stats here.) A smaller, quicker team that's full of good shooters is often best served by running the ball up the court and taking faster shots. This prevents opposing teams' big men from running back and clogging up the lane, and is the smaller team's best shot at efficient offense. These types of teams may stress turnovers as a way to get even more easy baskets. And as a successful small team, CSF is very good at creating turnovers (they're 50th in the country), and they shoot a high percentage (18th in shooting percentage). That all makes sense because turnovers often lead to easy baskets. CSF is also surprisingly smart with the ball for a fast paced team. They, like UW, don't turn the ball over very often (37th lowest turnover percentage). That may be because they shoot before they have a chance to travel or make a bad pass.
Oddly, that's fine by UW's standards. UW isn't a turnover forcing defense. I think they've figured out that trying too hard to create turnovers often leads to too many fouls, and thus sort of cancels out the benefit of getting the turnover. UW wants to get back on defense and force you into tough jump shots with their five-on-five defense. And they've been fabulous at doing that this season.
To get to the point, CSF's whole system depends on creating turnovers, pushing the pace, and getting easy baskets. UW's whole system depends on judicious offense and full-team defense. I doubt that UW will have a ton of turnovers in this game, so that should crimp CSF's style, though they guards will likely play Marquette and Purdue style pressing, handsy, man-to-man D. If CSF can't get turnovers, what they'll probably try to do is run back after long rebounds and maybe take pull-up jumpers in semi-transition-- like when it's 4 on 4 or 3 on 3. I really think that's CSF's shot-- try to create turnovers, and if that doesn't work try to get decent looks in semi-transition. I could totally see them shooting a lot of semi-transition threes (and they're quite good shooters generally, so this is something to be concerned about). If CSF is getting good looks that way, I bet Bo pulls Butch and Stiemsma and puts a Hughes, Flowers, Bohannon, Krabby, Landry combo on the floor. Maybe with some relief minutes from Jarmusz and Leuer. I think that should throw a wrench in the semi-transition offense for CSF, and would still allow Landry to operate in the post. I could see him having a big game, and our traditional "bigs" not playing that much. Kind of like what happened against Northwestern in Madison-- Butch and Stiemsma were pretty quiet and Landry had 20 points. It'd be funny, since one of the other stories leading up to this game is our height vs. their lack of height.
Anyway, that's what to look for-- UW forcing them into contested jumpers with their half-court defense, and UW not turning the ball over. If those things happen, you have to like UW's chances. CSF's defense isn't that great besides their ability to create turnovers (they're decent defensive rebounders, but they give up high shooting percentages), so if the Badgers hold onto the ball they should get good shots off or get fouled. A good development to look for would be some of CSF's forwards getting into foul trouble, since they're not a deep team and that means UW is running their offense effectively. Anyhow, as Badger fans lets hope that UW rolls and crushes Cinderella's slipper. Game on.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Key Insights
Here's another thought-provoking, insightful analysis of the Badger Men's Basketball team.
http://www.madison.com/tct/sports/uw/277717
http://www.madison.com/tct/sports/uw/277717
Saturday, March 15, 2008
It doesn't matter in multiple ways
I agree with Mr. Man, that we won't get a two seed. It is more important is that we are a three though, so we are on the other side of the bracket from the #1. It seems as if there is no real difference between a 2 and 3, two high seed games on the first weekend and then play 2/3 in the Sweet 16. If the selection committee is reading this, it would be awesome to be in the Midwest regional in Detroit. Thanks.
I was very impressed with Bucky today...for 8 minutes. I was afraid that they would run out of time to take advantage of the Sparty hack-fest, but they finally got hot and made some clutch free-throws down the stretch (J-Bo excepted). On display, once again, was Billy Packer's idiocy. Apparently Butch didn't have a 3-point shot in his arsenal until recently (except for the last 4 years), J-Bo is too slow to guard Lucas (except for the entire second half of the game), and it was important for the Badgers to stop shooting from outside to win (except for 3s by Landry, a 4-point play by J-Bo, and a 3 and another 3 free-throws by Butch of a 3 point shot). Is he the dumbest color man in sports? Can we please have a contest between Packer and Tim McCarver for who can say the most uninformed, pointless things during a sports contest. Whoever has the most will have his tongue removed, runner-up has his jaw wired shut forever.
I was very impressed with Bucky today...for 8 minutes. I was afraid that they would run out of time to take advantage of the Sparty hack-fest, but they finally got hot and made some clutch free-throws down the stretch (J-Bo excepted). On display, once again, was Billy Packer's idiocy. Apparently Butch didn't have a 3-point shot in his arsenal until recently (except for the last 4 years), J-Bo is too slow to guard Lucas (except for the entire second half of the game), and it was important for the Badgers to stop shooting from outside to win (except for 3s by Landry, a 4-point play by J-Bo, and a 3 and another 3 free-throws by Butch of a 3 point shot). Is he the dumbest color man in sports? Can we please have a contest between Packer and Tim McCarver for who can say the most uninformed, pointless things during a sports contest. Whoever has the most will have his tongue removed, runner-up has his jaw wired shut forever.
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