Wisconsin v. Illinois-- One Moment

The definitive play of the game, the momentum and outcome clincher in the University of Wisconsin's win over the Fightin' Fibs of the University of Illinois, was pretty obvious to me as soon as it happened. No, it's not any of the interceptions, although the first (by Chris Maragos) and the third (by Niles Brinkley) were enormous plays. (Though as I've said, they were more the result of errors by Juice Williams and his freshman receiver Fred Sykes, than great defense by the Badgers. Hey Juice, when you throw two interceptions trying to force the ball to a freshman wideout, maybe it's time to stop throwing him the ball. I still can't believe Arrelious Benn only had two catches.) And it's not any of the obvious offensive plays, like David Gilreath's explosive run and catch, Garrett Graham's big gainer on Brit Miller, or Dustin Sherer's touchdown run. Rather, it's a play that didn't score, that didn't gain a ton of yards, and wasn't by one of the team's marquee players. It was a 13-yard run by sophomore running back Zach Brown.

At the time, Wisconsin was clinging to a 3 point lead in the fourth quarter, a lead only gained as a result of two field goals coming after the previously mentioned interceptions. And the team had finally pieced together a legitimate Wisconsin style drive-- run, run, playaction pass, pass, playaction pass-- with the last pass being Graham's 45 yarder. That put Wisconsin with a first and ten at Illinois' 20 with about five minutes left. A touchdown on this possession would be huge, perhaps victory clinching. Two solid runs by Clay gave Wisconsin a 3rd and 1 at the eleven, something I was confident even this undynamic offense could convert. But wait! Reliable blocking tight end Mickey Turner got his right arm caught on the outside of his man and was flagged for holding. 3rd and 1 turns into 3rd and 10. Suddenly, the alarm bells go off as visions of an incomplete pass or a sack, a precarious field goal, and a tenuous three or six point lead flash through my head. Uh oh.

But then Zach saves the day. Offensive coordinator Paul Chryst goes with a conservative play call, a draw to Zach, and he burst up the middle to the left, slams into some defenders a yard or so short of the first down, but refuses to do down until he's several yards past the marker. First and goal at the seven: the drive lives! And the Wisconsin offense, thanks to Zach's burst and tenacity, is finally able to overcome its own mistakes.

Two plays later Sherer rolls right and hits Gilreath with a poorly thrown pass that David redeems for a (questionable) touchdown. A 10 point lead with less than four minutes left, and, given the defense's increased confidence, one that looks, and turns out to be, insurmountable. A great play by an unheralded and underappreciated young man. Way to go, Zach.

What We Learned on Saturday

- Despite their awful record, the Minnesota football team isn't that bad. Consider the evidence:
(A) They're clearly improving, despite their horrific record. They only lost at Iowa by 5, and they gave UW a serious run for the money, taking an early lead, and coming back to make the game close at the end.
(B) They have a fair amount of young talent-- the Gophers' quarterback is a player, and he's only a redshirt freshman; sophomore wideout Aaron Decker burned Jackie I. repeatedly, and "decked" him in the crotch; and their entire starting D-line, which performed decently at times, is made up of sophomores.
(C) They appear to have a fair amount of talent coming in, and in fact have outrecruited UW for some talented guys, including Chicago receiver Brandon Green. In fact, according to Rivals.com, it looks like Minnesota has a better recruiting class coming in next year than UW, though that may be due to the team missing wide receivers coach Henry Mason this year. (Heal up, Henry!) The point is, UW fans should enjoy this victory now because it looks like the rivalry between the schools will become more closely balanced quite soon.

- The Metrodome remains a terrible place to play football. The morbid lighting, the unnatural color of the crappy artificial turf, the lingering smoke from the fireworks, the poor air quality, the overall dimness. That place just stinks. Hubert Humphrey must be rolling over in his grave, and Minnesota players and coaches must be counting the days until their new, open-air on-campus stadium opens.

- Jack does not look ready to go pro. No offense to Ikegwuonu, who's a very good player and seems like a smart guy. But if you get burned repeatedly by some sophomore from Minnesota that no one has ever heard of (the aforementioned crotch puncher, Aaron Decker) you probably won't be a first day draft pick, and if that's the case, you're probably better off taking out an insurance policy and staying in school another year. And Jack may need to focus on his legal problems. The fact that his case goes to trial on a felony burglary charge in January is not at all good. As a UW fan, I call for the DeKalb County State's Attorney to dial it down a notch already, and offer a plea deal for a reduced misdemeanor charge and probation. (Note to the DeKalb ASA handling the case-- Jack is a nice kid from a good family and has no record whatsoever, and he's accused of stealing an X-Box, a property crime, not a violent crime.) And if I'm Jack, I take that deal rather than risk my liberty on a trial, regardless of my innocence. The risk is just too high.
Getting back to football, Saturday was a downer of a day for both of the Badgers' potential early entrants-- Beckum hurt his shoulder stretching out for a touchdown on a nice play, and dropped some catchable passes before that. I may be a greedy UW fan, but I don't see how a 220-pound tight end makes it in the NFL. Beckum needs to start power lifting and eating a lot of grass-fed beef. If he could muscle up a bit more all over, and not lose his speed, I could totally see him being a very high draft pick. But at 220, strongside NFL linebackers are going to blow right past him, and I don't know if he's fast enough to be a pure wideout. Maybe he should have a talk with Owen Daniels about taking on NFL blockers.

- Zach Brown has improved. He was noticeably tougher to bring down in this game than in previous outings, and he's decision making, particularly deciding when to cut back, has gotten better. At the start, it seemed like he would always go where the play was supposed to, regardless of how the defense responded or how the blocking worked. This made him a stark contrast to Lance Smith, who looked to freelance at every opportunity. But Zach seems more comfortable, and thus more judicious-- he's seeing backside cuts and taking them. It looked like he was doing that against Michigan as well. That really enables him to take advantage of his best attribute, which I think is his ability to accelerate. He sees a hole, cuts, and shoots right through at top speed. Now if he could only learn how to finish long runs . . . Nonetheless, a good game against a fired-up Minnesota defense.

- Trevon Hughes is a talent. I continue to feel sad for all you Big Ten Network-less folks, as you missed another dominant performance by the UW basketball team in their twenty-six point depantsing of Colorado. And again, Hughes put on a show, nailing several threes, playing harassing perimeter defense, snatching rebounds and taking off on the break, drawing fouls, and throwing out precision passes for assists and drawn fouls. It's highly unlikely that Trevon will continue to shoot 57% from the floor or 53% from beyond the arc, as he did in the past three days. Indeed, the four teams they've played so far were so unimpressive that UW's RPI is only 155th, despite their 4-0 record. And Trevon will definitely face better backcourts in UW's consecutive games against Georgia, at Duke (why couldn't this game have come last season?), and against the hypocritical papists of Marquette. (Didn't you love the dual announcements by the U.S. Bishops Conference that (1) the increase in pederast priests was really not an epidemic because it was in line with increased molestation rates nationwide and (2) that if you don't vote pro-life you're going to hell?) And I'm sure Trevon will go through tough times, whether in those games or later. But regardless, Hughes has star potential, and has been playing up to that potential so far this season. As Ricky Bobby says when he catches another guy looking at his package at the urinal, "Yeah, it's the real deal down there."

- UW men's basketball could surprise some people this year. UW totally shredded the two-three zone of a pretty athletic Colorado team, racking up 21 assists and making only 8 turnovers. Unless a guy is deep in the post, every player looks to pass, a remarkable and "Hoosiers"-like quality. They're very patient, but opportunistic when a good option opens up. And if the shot clock gets low, Hughes or Flowers will drive, or Bohannon will look for a runner. Those are solid options. And they resulted in UW averaging a astoundingly healthy 1.27 points per possession against CU. In fact, UW improved offensively as the tournament went along, going from 1.17 PPP to 1.23 PPP to the aforementioned 1.27, even though CU was easily the most talented team that UW faced in that series. That bodes very well. Plus, most of the time, the team played excellent help defense-- Stiemsma had five blocks, including four in quick succession, Flowers and Hughes were harassing perimeter opponents and cutting off passing lanes, even the Hoft cracked open his head by drawing a charge.
I'm not saying the team doesn't have things to work on. CU did run a give and go play that worked repeatedly, but things look very good so far. They've got talent, they're motivated, they're unselfish, and they seem to work well together on both defense and offense. I think the team should handle a Georgia squad that is missing its two top returning scorers due to off-the-court issues, and just suspended a replacement starter. (See this, this, and this.) As for Duke three days later, well, we'll see. At the least, it should a learning experience and an interesting gauge for where they're at.

Hill is Out

For tomorrow's 11 am showdown with the stanky Wolverines, and their multiple first round draft picks (Long and Manningham). This means that Lance Smith (Rance Smith!) and Zach Brown will share carries. Zach had some decent runs against OSU and Lance is quite explosive. However, Zach is averaging less than 4 yards a carry, and neither he nor Lance have shown PJ's ability to pick up tough yards after contact. And since we are not a spread offense, there will likely be plenty of contact from the Michigan defense.

Seriously folks, I don't know how the UW offense will match-up on the Michigan D. I haven't seen Michigan play enough this season, but I do know they have some solid talent, like LB Shawn Crable. I'm worried about stumpy guns, aka Tyler Donovan, turning the ball over when the Badgers are forced to pass, as they probably will be. And I'm worried about the line protecting him (they gave up 10 sacks, not 9, last weekend). I like Beckum, Hubbard and Jefferson, and I like Donovan running more than passing. Seriously, I want more QB runs than passes this game. Historically, Michigan tends to look like a guy with his pants around his ankles who forgot to lock the bathroom door when confronted with a mobile quarterback. That said, they did defense "The Juice is Loose" Williams decently a few weeks ago. But Williams is such a terrible passer, maybe they could just write him off as a threat to throw.

I think the game, unfortunately, will turn on how the Badgers' undermanned defense responds to Michigan's offense. After two fine defensive performances against Northern Illinois and Indiana, they played admirably for about 60% of the game in Columbus, and then totally wore out. And now Chapman and Langford are out. I like Aaron Henry as Langford's replacement, and I like seeing Newkirk back at tackle in place of Chapman. But both absences create further depth problems, or force iffy players into more playing time. I would not be surprised to see Michigan run at whatever defensive end replaces Newkirk, and throw at whichever receiver is covered by the new nickel back. Plus, the lack of depth will only exacerbate the D's lack of stamina. The defense will need to play a great game, and need the offense to control the time of possession, if UW is going to win. And unfortunately, I don't see that. I hope it's not so, but tomorrow could be ugly.

Running Backs, Running Backs

As most Packer fans must have heard by now, the oft-injured, but, when not injured, most impressive back on the team, rookie DeShawn Wynn, has been put on injured reserve. His one carry against the Broncos led to a "stinger" in his neck that was so serious he would have missed most of the team's remaining games. So, a la Noah Herron, instead of waiting for him to regain his health, the Packers put him on injured reserve, ending his season. My apologies to all of you who picked him up on your fantasy teams. Wynn looks like a pretty talented guy, and, if he drops some excess weight, could be a legit starting back in the league. But that's only if he can stay healthy, something that looks dubious. But hell, he was a seventh round pick! Keep him around, and see if he can do anything. There's virtually no risk on the Packers' end.

As far as this season goes, I'm hoping that losing Wynn won't hurt the Packers that much. Although this may mean we see more of the (right now) totally pedestrian Brandon Jackson (Brandon's only 21, so I have hope for his future development), Ryan Grant and Vernand Morency should be able to contribute about as much as Wynn could. And it's not like the team isn't used to playing without Wynn anyway, with all of his various injuries and health issues.

In more immediately troubling news, it looks like PJ Hill may not be able to play at OSU on Saturday. And Lance Smith is still suspended for road games, due to his cab fare/battery of girlfriend/shoe stealing incident. (Man, being an Ohio native, you have got to think that Lance would have been really amped for this game.) This means that the running game will be in the hands of true freshman Zach Brown, backed up by true freshman Quincy Landingham. Uh oh. Zach has good acceleration, and appears to be an excellent blocker, but he has not shown that he can pick up tough yards or break tackles like PJ, though, to be fair, few backs can. And he certainly doesn't have Lance's agility or experience. Since OSU is ranked number one in total defense so far this season, and number four in rushing defense, you have to think, come Saturday, there won't be a lot of wide open holes for Badger backs to run through. PJ's ability to get yards after contact and Lance's ability to freestyle probably would have come in handy. Zach will do his best, I'm sure, but the offensive game will largely be in the hands of Donovan and the receiving corps. Double uh oh. Unless the defense comes up absolutely huge in Columbus, it could be a long day.

Now it's time for some happier running back news. Two Badger running back recruits from the Chicago area had huge days in the first round of the Illinois state playoffs. Eric Smith, from Bolingbrook High School (far Southwestern suburbs) had 25 carries for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Dex Jones, from Montini High School (a Catholic school in the Western suburbs) had 15 carries for 202 yards and a score. Now, since this was the first round of the playoffs, and both guys are on pretty good teams, they weren't playing against totally awesome opponents or anything. But you'd hope your recruits would dominate middling opposition, and so it's good to see they did. Treading positive...

Up, Down, All Around

It's funny how your feelings about your teams' performances relate to your expectations. For example, everyone, including the betting gurus, expected UW's football team to pound UNLV. But they played poorly and barely won, and Badger fans all over the place are upset and disappointed, and may have revised their expectations for the team from here on out. In contrast, last Sunday, the Packers barely won, but no one expected anything from them, so fans generally felt positive about the victory, and maybe their expectations for the team grew a bit. Ah, people are so easily influenced-- myself definitely included.

For example, I'm looking forward to seeing the Badgers play the Citadel this weekend in Madison, but that excitement is mixed with a heavy dose of reservation. And that's completely due to their poor showing in Las Vegas. I wonder--which game showed the real offense? The struggle against UNLV or the aerial show against Wazzu? Was Wazzu's pass defense just really terrible? If they have trouble scoring on UNLV, why wouldn't they have difficultly with, and maybe even lose to, the Citadel? The Citadel has won a bunch of games in a row, and its last loss was to Appalachian State, the depants-er of Michigan. The Citadel also runs a spread option, the same formation that UNLV used to move the ball on UW. So seriously, I'm nervous, as ridiculous as it may sound.

And Hubbard's injury at the hands of that dickhead UNLV player has me even more nervous. Hubbard's a great athlete, an excellent blocker, and a legitimate deep threat. He opened up the passing game tremendously, even if he hadn't caught a ton of balls this season. None of the reserves will be able to make up for his loss, but Xavier Harris, Marcus Randle-El, and Kyle Jefferson will try. Harris is a true sophomore who started out strong in camp last year, caught a few passes in some early games, and then didn't see much action. He runs solid routes, and has excellent hands and good size, but doesn't appear to be the athlete that Hubbard is (to be fair, few are). Randle-El is a quick, shifty redshirt junior with good hands. He lacks size and great speed since his return from an ACL tear last fall. Jefferson is a true freshman who's big and fast, but he's rail thin and obviously green. It'll be interesting to see if any of them step up tomorrow or in the weeks until Hubbard returns.

The running back situation also seems to be in flux. Several articles today stated that true freshman Zach Brown, he of the awesome grille head shot, will get the majority of the back up carries this week, ahead of Lance Smith ("Rance Smith!") and John Clay. In fact, the Capital Times actually said that Clay "looms as a redshirt candidate." Huh. It's understandable that the coaching staff would move Brown ahead of Lance because the Badgers have a bunch of key road games this year (at Penn State, Illinois and Ohio State) that Lance can't play in. It makes more sense for the team to use Brown in games like this one in order to get him acclimated. You have to feel bad for Lance though. He loses the road games, and now he's basically losing the home games as well. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the depth chart at running back remains fluid all season. If Brown is just ok on Saturday, but not great, you'd have to think the coaches would go back to Lance for tough home games like next week's match-up with Iowa. They just want to win. Regardless, it will be neat to see what Brown does on Saturday.

The John Clay thing is interesting as well. Going into last weekend, it sounded like Clay was going to get a serious look at UNLV. Unfortunately, that game turned out to be far tighter than everyone anticipated, and even Brown only saw the field for a few carries. Now, it looks like Clay may not see any action this entire season. Do you think that the reports on Clay's talents were overstated, because if he was that good he'd be playing already? Or is the playbook just that complicated, and he was late coming to camp? Or do UW coaches, seeing that Lance and PJ still have two plus years of eligibility left, just want to maximize his eligibility? Mysterious...

Come Saturday, I'm also looking to see if the offense will receive a boost from the likely return of team captain Andy Crooks, who's been milling about on the sidelines for the past two weeks. Garrett Graham's been taking his snaps, and while Graham is probably more mobile, Crooks is a little craftier, and certainly a more physical blocker. I hope the running game picks up with Crooks sealing the edge a little better.

I also am hopeful that the defense will finally dominate. The expectations for that group were very high coming into the year. The loss of Jamal Cooper hurt, it's true, but he didn't play that much last season either. The D tightened up against Wazzu in the second half, and didn't give up many points to UNLV, considering the time of possession problems, but I'd like to see them creating more havoc. The D has one true turnover this season, Shane Carter's interception against UNLV, and only three sacks, two coming on UNLV's last minute attempt at a touchdown drive, when the Badgers knew they'd be passing. Great defenses dominate physically. I think many of the guys on the Badgers' D are capable of that, so I hope they can finally put together a complete performance.

Really, I'm just looking to enjoy watching a game, hopefully a solid victory. Before, I would have expected it. Now, after the near debacle in Vegas, I'm just hoping it's not too much to ask.

Oh No, Rance Smith!

Now comes word that mercurial running back Lance Smith ("Rance Smith!") has been suspended for all of the Badgers' road games. This punishment appears to stem from the girlfriend/cab fare/shoe-stealing incident in July. I guess we jinxed Rance with all the talk about his quickness yesterday.

Besides the game at Minnesota and Saturday night's match-up at UNLV, this includes outings at Penn State, at Illinois, and at Ohio State. Uh oh. (You think Lance, an Ohio guy, would have been fired up to play in Columbus?) This means that for those key road games, the back up running backs will be true freshmen Zach Brown and John Clay. Clay is apparently quite talented, but missed half of training camp, and Brown tweaked his knee in one of his half dozen or so carries against Wazzu. Brown also looks (for better or for worse) like this--
Personally, I think the gold grille is awesome. Since you can only expect Brown and Clay to know some of the offense, the offensive play calling will be limited whenever they step on the field. So neither can really replace Lance, although they should be able to spell Hill for limited periods of time. All Badger fans should pray that P.J. stays healthy, because if he goes down on the road, like against a hard hitting Penn State or Illinois team, the Badgers' offense might turn vanilla in a hurry.
(In Zach's defense, you can find a more traditional headshot here.)