I Don't Think I'm Ever Doing That Again

Watching "Live Streaming Video" on the Big Ten Network's website is, uh, awful. The speed of the feed kept slowing down, speeding up, stopping, etc. And the sound, the radio broadcast for the game, which could have been great, was about three minutes ahead of the video. Ugh. What crap. Again, why did the Big Ten Network opt to show volleyball on its television channel instead of some men's basketball exhibitions? I like volleyball, but I'm almost certain the ratings will be higher with basketball, even an exhibition game. So yeah, the point is I watched the University of Wisconsin men's basketball team beat Augustana College in their first exhibition game last night, on the Big Ten Network's website, and it was an unpleasant viewing experience.

Anyhow, here's the box score. Again, Augustana College is a D-II school, which means some of their guys are on scholarship, and they did make the D-II tournament last year. They had some decent ball-handlers, and they had some good jump shooters. (I love Bo's post-game comment that "They can shoot it. Division II, Division III teams, you don't play H-O-R-S-E with them." As a former D-III athlete, I agree.) But Augustana was not tall, I bet their tallest guy was 6'8", and they were not particularly athletic. Thus, the Badgers scored a fair amount of points in the paint.

In particular, Landry scored a lot, although about a third of his points were two three-pointers that bounced around the rim. He's looking very fluid and confident on the offensive end. Leuer looked like you'd want him to-- hit a three, scored in the paint, took his guy to the basket once or twice. Bohannon nailed a bunch of threes-- his release looks to be quicker than the last two seasons, which is very exciting. Frosh Jordan Taylor was strong with the ball, and made good decisions; plus, that kid is flat out built. He looks more like a running back than a point guard. Mystery frosh Ryan Evans played a fair amount and looked pretty good, grabbing some offensive boards, slashing to the basket a couple of times. That was reassuring, because after reading that he didn't do much in the scrimmage I was starting to get a bit worried. The frosh big men-- Ian Markolf and Jared Berggren-- looked fine, large, not awkward with the ball, and reasonably mobile. No worse than Stiemsma or Butch as freshman, and well above the Gavinski/Mader level, at least in my opinion. But I bet one or both redshirt. And yes, the frosh can play in these exhibition games without burning their redshirts. It'll be interesting to see what happens on that front. All I know is that Taylor is not redshirting. That kid is going to be a consistent contributor.

Finally, regarding frosh Robert Wilson-- ATTENTION, ATTENTION: we have an impending paradigm shift! Wisconsin is no longer a clean cut and wholesome team! That is, (the horror, the horror)-- Wilson has a visible tatoo. The team's Hoosier-esque, 1950s image is irretrievable shattered. What's next, players with unkempt hair or, god forbid, headbands? Hell, we might as well join the Big East. What a terrible recruiting oversight, Bo. This is what happens when you give a scholarship to a kid from Cleveland.

(The above paragraph was said in jest, of course. Wilson looked quite good, a legit 6'4" or 6'5", smooth with the ball and his shot and scrappy on defense; he does not seem to be a redshirt candidate.)

Men's Basketball Scrimmage Recap

Unsurprisingly, the most thorough and interesting recap of the University of Wisconsin Men's Basketball team's Red-White scrimmage comes not from the Madison or the Milwaukee papers, but from Phil over at Hoops Marinara. Based on that and other various reports, I can say with confidence that former Madison Memorial Spartan Keaton Nankivil went to town offensively (Hooray, another Badger that can dunk easily!), frosh Jordan Taylor looked impressive, the big four (Trevon Hughes, Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcuc Landry, and Jason Bohannon) all played solid games, Tim Jarmusz tussled with Morris Cain but was otherwise quiet, and Jon Leuer had a tough night, getting repeatedly rejected by (gulp) J.P. Gavinski. Sounds like an entertaining experience. And it looks like Nankivil will be the team's fifth starter, with Leuer, Taylor, Jarmusz, and maybe Gavinski and Kevin Gullickson coming off the bench.

We'll get a better idea this Saturday night, when the Badgers play host to Augusta College in their first exhibition game. That game will apparently be streamed on the Big Ten Network's website, for all the exceedingly devoted Badger basketball fans out there. Tip off is at 7 pm.

Who Will Be the Fifth?

With the University of Wisconsin football team in a frightening downslide and the Packers on vacation, it's time to discuss the happy arrival of Wisconsin men's basketball season. Bo Ryan's team already had its "Night of the Grateful Red" last week, officially marking the start of practice (although I'm totally unclear about how all of the quasi-practices, like supervised running of the hill in Elver Park aren't practice, but whatever). The first exhibition game is eight days away, on November 1, against Augustana. Plus, there's an intra-squad scrimmage on Wednesday night, which I'm disappointed that I'll have to miss.

And that's because the team is in an interesting spot. Although it only has three starters returning, that number is misleading. Really, counting Jason Bohannon, who played more than 20 minutes a game last year, the team has four starters back. The backcourt, with Trevon Hughes and Bohannon is set. As are the two forward slots, with seniors Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft at the 4 and the 3, respectively. These four guys look to receive the lion's share of the team's minutes, with Landry, Hughes and Bohannon likely to be the team's top three scorers, and Krabbenhoft the main candidate for leading rebounder. The team's fortunes this season will largely rest in the hands of this upperclassmen quartet, and if they can continue to grow and improve, as we've seen them do over the past two to three seasons, Wisconsin should have another excellent, exciting year.

But that's predictable. What's interesting to think about this year is all of the question marks behind these guys. We have three true sophomores, redshirt soph J.P. Gavinski, a walk-on senior in Kevin Gullickson, and then five true freshmen on the team. Several of those ten guys will get legit playing time, but the majority will ride the pine, and have to make their marks in practice. My guess for members of the rotation are Gullickson, frosh point guard Jordan Taylor, and the sophomores Keaton Nankivil, Jon Leuer and Tim Jarmusz.

But I still find myself wondering: of this bunch, who is the fifth guy is going to be? I don't mean the fifth starter. As Bo often says, that's kind of irrelevant. What matters is who's on the floor at crunch time-- who do you put out there in the closing seconds when the game is on the line? Some argue that it will be Leuer, based on his Dirk Nowitzki like potential and somewhat bulked up physique. Others claim it will be Nankivil, as the team will need a muscular rebounding interior presence, and the former Madison Memorial Spartan is perhaps the Badgers' best combination of brawn and athleticism.

But I'm going with the unsexy Tim Jarmusz. The steady swingman from Oshkosh played more as last season progressed, even with an outstanding three guard rotation of Hughes, Bohannon and Michael Flowers ahead of him. Plus, he's smart with the ball, plays solid defense, has a deft shooting touch, and can guard nearly every position on the court except the 5 spot. I really see Tim getting a bunch of minutes, especially late in games when big guys may have fouled out and things tend to become more guard-oriented. I'm not saying Jarmusz will start-- I bet Bo goes with a traditional big like Nankivil to fill out the starting lineup. But I pick Tim as my fifth finisher, along with the upperclassmen quartet. He's a gamer. What say ye?

The Cal State Fullerton Titans

Since I don't have a videotape lackey, I must rely on statistics to scout out the Badgers' first round opponents. As many articles have related, California State University at Fullerton (CSF) is a small team that plays at a fast pace. How fast? Well, of over 340 Division-I basketball teams, CSF plays at the 15th fastest pace. The only team UW has played that runs at a faster pace is Duke, who's 13th. (Uh oh. See here.) UW, conversely, is way way down at the end of that list, among the slowest paced teams in the nation. Not as slow as, say, Georgetown or Washington State, but pretty darn slow.

Why does this matter? Well, UW likes to slow things down because they value each possession. Bo's a believer in the points per possession statistic, and has figured out that if you can average a decent rating there (say slightly over 1) then you tend to win. So, from their perspective, it doesn't really matter how many raw points you score. What matters is being efficient with your opportunities-- taking high quality shots, drawing fouls if you can (free throws are the some of the easiest shots), and not turning the ball over. The same theory applies to defense-- play tough defense on each possession, try not to foul, and don't turn the ball over so the other team gets easy fast break opportunities. This theory works well if you've got solid post players (post shots are generally high quality and putting the ball in the post increases your chances of drawing a foul or creating an open jumper for a teammate). Wisconsin's been lucky enough to have guys like Mike Wilkinson, Alando, and this year Butch and Landry-- all of whom are solid inside players. That's also why Wisconsin runs the swing-- in it, everyone can post up and it's premised on hunting around for the best posting match-up. This offensive theory may not work as well if you're more perimeter dominated, or if you lack guards who can function as post players.

CSF is definitely perimeter oriented. (See their stats here.) A smaller, quicker team that's full of good shooters is often best served by running the ball up the court and taking faster shots. This prevents opposing teams' big men from running back and clogging up the lane, and is the smaller team's best shot at efficient offense. These types of teams may stress turnovers as a way to get even more easy baskets. And as a successful small team, CSF is very good at creating turnovers (they're 50th in the country), and they shoot a high percentage (18th in shooting percentage). That all makes sense because turnovers often lead to easy baskets. CSF is also surprisingly smart with the ball for a fast paced team. They, like UW, don't turn the ball over very often (37th lowest turnover percentage). That may be because they shoot before they have a chance to travel or make a bad pass.

Oddly, that's fine by UW's standards. UW isn't a turnover forcing defense. I think they've figured out that trying too hard to create turnovers often leads to too many fouls, and thus sort of cancels out the benefit of getting the turnover. UW wants to get back on defense and force you into tough jump shots with their five-on-five defense. And they've been fabulous at doing that this season.

To get to the point, CSF's whole system depends on creating turnovers, pushing the pace, and getting easy baskets. UW's whole system depends on judicious offense and full-team defense. I doubt that UW will have a ton of turnovers in this game, so that should crimp CSF's style, though they guards will likely play Marquette and Purdue style pressing, handsy, man-to-man D. If CSF can't get turnovers, what they'll probably try to do is run back after long rebounds and maybe take pull-up jumpers in semi-transition-- like when it's 4 on 4 or 3 on 3. I really think that's CSF's shot-- try to create turnovers, and if that doesn't work try to get decent looks in semi-transition. I could totally see them shooting a lot of semi-transition threes (and they're quite good shooters generally, so this is something to be concerned about). If CSF is getting good looks that way, I bet Bo pulls Butch and Stiemsma and puts a Hughes, Flowers, Bohannon, Krabby, Landry combo on the floor. Maybe with some relief minutes from Jarmusz and Leuer. I think that should throw a wrench in the semi-transition offense for CSF, and would still allow Landry to operate in the post. I could see him having a big game, and our traditional "bigs" not playing that much. Kind of like what happened against Northwestern in Madison-- Butch and Stiemsma were pretty quiet and Landry had 20 points. It'd be funny, since one of the other stories leading up to this game is our height vs. their lack of height.

Anyway, that's what to look for-- UW forcing them into contested jumpers with their half-court defense, and UW not turning the ball over. If those things happen, you have to like UW's chances. CSF's defense isn't that great besides their ability to create turnovers (they're decent defensive rebounders, but they give up high shooting percentages), so if the Badgers hold onto the ball they should get good shots off or get fouled. A good development to look for would be some of CSF's forwards getting into foul trouble, since they're not a deep team and that means UW is running their offense effectively. Anyhow, as Badger fans lets hope that UW rolls and crushes Cinderella's slipper. Game on.

Positives and Negatives

Well, the Big Ten announced their annual awards this afternoon and alas, Michael Flowers did not win defensive player of the year. That went to Purdoodoo's Chris Kramer, who did lead the league in steals. Still, I'd take Flowers over Kramer any day of the week. And I have no doubt that Flowers could equal Kramer's steal total if the Badgers played Purdue's style of pressure defense. Kramer is, undoubtedly, an excellent player, but it's a shame. The coaches bought into numbers over substance, in my opinion.

The positives were that Michael was named to the all-defensive team, for the second straight season. Joining him on there was Joe Krabbenhoft, someone who doesn't get enough credit for being an awfully good defender. Michael, deservedly so, was also named second-team all conference by the media and third-team by the coaches. (I guess the coaches were just generally a little more down on Michael than the press, unfortunately.) Similarly, Marcus Landry was second team by the coaches and third team by the media. Congratulations, Marcus, and I hope you'll continue to develop during the rest of your time at Wisconsin. In a surprise, Butch was named first-team all conference by both the coaches and the media. Congratulations and well done, Brian. I believe Brian was honorable mention last season. Also, Trevon Hughes made honorable mention all-conference in both squads. I have no doubt that, barring injury or tragedy, Hughes will be a first team guy during the rest of his time here, however long that is.

The great and suprising award-- Jason Bohannon as sixth man of the year. Amen to that one. Without his shooting, capable defense, and smart decision-making, I don't know where Wisconsin would be. Certainly not atop the Big Ten. The complete list can be found here.

As far as my predictions, my main problem was drastically overstating everyone's opinion of Northwestern's Kevin Coble. I guess my opinion was biased by his total en fuego-ness against Indiana a few weeks ago, when NU gave them a scare. He scored 37 points, I think. None of the Hoosiers could stop him. And I underrated everyone's infatuation with Robbie Hummel who was a unanimous first-teamer, even though he lost out on freshman of the year to one-and-done Eric Gordon. I also can't believe Drew Neitzel made first team from the coaches. He had a rough season and Sparty underachieved.

Anyhow, congratulations to all the Badgers mentioned for their excellent achievements. It's remarkable that every one of the Badgers' top six players won some form of all conference recognition. Simply remarkable. And congratulation to the rest of the team for helping get these guys the recognition-- through hard work and dedication.

Addendum! The Journal-Sentinel, I guess as a product of being the largest paper in the state, named Flowers its "Division I State Player of the Year". See here. That apparently means, the best or most important player on any of Wisconsin's four Division I programs (UWM, UWGB, Marquette, and Wisconsin). A nice and well-deserved honor for Michael. The J-S also named Bo its Division I Coach of the Year. See a write up of that here.