Hill is Out

For tomorrow's 11 am showdown with the stanky Wolverines, and their multiple first round draft picks (Long and Manningham). This means that Lance Smith (Rance Smith!) and Zach Brown will share carries. Zach had some decent runs against OSU and Lance is quite explosive. However, Zach is averaging less than 4 yards a carry, and neither he nor Lance have shown PJ's ability to pick up tough yards after contact. And since we are not a spread offense, there will likely be plenty of contact from the Michigan defense.

Seriously folks, I don't know how the UW offense will match-up on the Michigan D. I haven't seen Michigan play enough this season, but I do know they have some solid talent, like LB Shawn Crable. I'm worried about stumpy guns, aka Tyler Donovan, turning the ball over when the Badgers are forced to pass, as they probably will be. And I'm worried about the line protecting him (they gave up 10 sacks, not 9, last weekend). I like Beckum, Hubbard and Jefferson, and I like Donovan running more than passing. Seriously, I want more QB runs than passes this game. Historically, Michigan tends to look like a guy with his pants around his ankles who forgot to lock the bathroom door when confronted with a mobile quarterback. That said, they did defense "The Juice is Loose" Williams decently a few weeks ago. But Williams is such a terrible passer, maybe they could just write him off as a threat to throw.

I think the game, unfortunately, will turn on how the Badgers' undermanned defense responds to Michigan's offense. After two fine defensive performances against Northern Illinois and Indiana, they played admirably for about 60% of the game in Columbus, and then totally wore out. And now Chapman and Langford are out. I like Aaron Henry as Langford's replacement, and I like seeing Newkirk back at tackle in place of Chapman. But both absences create further depth problems, or force iffy players into more playing time. I would not be surprised to see Michigan run at whatever defensive end replaces Newkirk, and throw at whichever receiver is covered by the new nickel back. Plus, the lack of depth will only exacerbate the D's lack of stamina. The defense will need to play a great game, and need the offense to control the time of possession, if UW is going to win. And unfortunately, I don't see that. I hope it's not so, but tomorrow could be ugly.

Running Backs, Running Backs

As most Packer fans must have heard by now, the oft-injured, but, when not injured, most impressive back on the team, rookie DeShawn Wynn, has been put on injured reserve. His one carry against the Broncos led to a "stinger" in his neck that was so serious he would have missed most of the team's remaining games. So, a la Noah Herron, instead of waiting for him to regain his health, the Packers put him on injured reserve, ending his season. My apologies to all of you who picked him up on your fantasy teams. Wynn looks like a pretty talented guy, and, if he drops some excess weight, could be a legit starting back in the league. But that's only if he can stay healthy, something that looks dubious. But hell, he was a seventh round pick! Keep him around, and see if he can do anything. There's virtually no risk on the Packers' end.

As far as this season goes, I'm hoping that losing Wynn won't hurt the Packers that much. Although this may mean we see more of the (right now) totally pedestrian Brandon Jackson (Brandon's only 21, so I have hope for his future development), Ryan Grant and Vernand Morency should be able to contribute about as much as Wynn could. And it's not like the team isn't used to playing without Wynn anyway, with all of his various injuries and health issues.

In more immediately troubling news, it looks like PJ Hill may not be able to play at OSU on Saturday. And Lance Smith is still suspended for road games, due to his cab fare/battery of girlfriend/shoe stealing incident. (Man, being an Ohio native, you have got to think that Lance would have been really amped for this game.) This means that the running game will be in the hands of true freshman Zach Brown, backed up by true freshman Quincy Landingham. Uh oh. Zach has good acceleration, and appears to be an excellent blocker, but he has not shown that he can pick up tough yards or break tackles like PJ, though, to be fair, few backs can. And he certainly doesn't have Lance's agility or experience. Since OSU is ranked number one in total defense so far this season, and number four in rushing defense, you have to think, come Saturday, there won't be a lot of wide open holes for Badger backs to run through. PJ's ability to get yards after contact and Lance's ability to freestyle probably would have come in handy. Zach will do his best, I'm sure, but the offensive game will largely be in the hands of Donovan and the receiving corps. Double uh oh. Unless the defense comes up absolutely huge in Columbus, it could be a long day.

Now it's time for some happier running back news. Two Badger running back recruits from the Chicago area had huge days in the first round of the Illinois state playoffs. Eric Smith, from Bolingbrook High School (far Southwestern suburbs) had 25 carries for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Dex Jones, from Montini High School (a Catholic school in the Western suburbs) had 15 carries for 202 yards and a score. Now, since this was the first round of the playoffs, and both guys are on pretty good teams, they weren't playing against totally awesome opponents or anything. But you'd hope your recruits would dominate middling opposition, and so it's good to see they did. Treading positive...

Knuckles, not Fingers

Over the past few months, I've read a bunch of books by this English "mystery" writer, Lee Child. The best term to describe his books is "embarrassingly entertaining," meaning that you enjoy the books, but realize they're completely ridiculous and you probably shouldn't talk to other people about them. Nearly all his books feature this enormous, uber-bad ass ex-MP protagonist/narrator given the hilarious name of Jack Reacher. Anyhow, there's a scene in this one book, Killing Floor, where he's in a state prison and gets jumped by a group of neo-Nazis. Reacher is getting choked from behind by some enormous skinhead, but is able to peel him off and ends up kicking the skinheads' asses. Reacher later explains that the skinhead messed up by choking him with his fingers extended. This enabled Reacher to grab some of the skinhead's fingers and break them, thus freeing himself. Had the skinhead instead bent his fingers in, and choked him with his knuckles, Reacher admits, he would have been unable to pry off the attacker's fingers, and been killed.

This seems like an apt metaphor for the Badgers thus far this season. They're the skinhead-- they've ambushed the opponents, it's time for the kill stroke, and they can't deliver. Now so far, they've still managed to win the fight, no one has done a Jack Reacher on them--come back all the way to beat them--but if they keep letting people off the hook it's going to happen.

Consider last week's game-- Badgers are up ten, toward the end of the third quarter, the defense sacks the Sparty QB, actually forcing a three and out and a punt, and UW gets the ball at midfield. A good team marches down and scores, and puts the game out of reach. Wisco had just scored a touchdown on their opening drive of the second half, and had marched down the field to kick a field goal at the end of the first. They're moving the ball well on offense, their defense has actually done something, and it's time to firmly take control of the game. Things start out promisingly, with Hill running for five, Donovan scrambling for a few more, and PJ churning out a first down.

The ball is now at the Sparty 45. Twelve more yards, and Taylor's in field goal range. The blood should be in the water. The hands are around the neck, so to speak. But UW then starts going backwards. MSU defenders pile on Hill for a short loss. Donovan forces a pass to a double-covered Beckum, and the Sparty DBs break it up (and, alas, other players were open on this play). Then the Badgers run a swing pass to Hill, who's closely covered and tackled for a four yard loss. Boom goes the punt, which unfortunately goes into the end zone for a touchback, and the fingers are pried off the neck. Sparty has new life, and they score a touchdown on their next drive, suddenly making the game close again.

I don't know if the Badgers lost focus, or a few play calls went awry, or if Donovan made an iffy decision or what. And I know that Jefferson and Randle El were both out of the game at this point, so the passing attack was in semi-disarray. But they had the ball in opposing territory with a ten point lead late in the third quarter. That was the Badgers chance to put the game out of reach, and they went backwards. If UW wants to continue to win and start being taken seriously, it needs to take advantage of those opportunities. Stomp on opponents when they're down. Take your kill shot when you have it. As Jack Reacher would advise, use the knuckles, not the fingers.

If they can win like that . . .

than they Badgers should be alright. I know the game was at home and Iowa is green and had a bunch of injuries. But Wisconsin turned the ball over three times, and in bad areas on the field-- each turnover resulted in Iowa having great field position, and Donovan's fumble, in particular, killed a likely Badger scoring drive. By doing so, the team essentially spotted Iowa points. And the defense didn't get even one turnover to even the margin. How many teams usually win with a -3 turnover margin? Almost none, I'd wager.

The reason this was possible is that the defense, with the exception of forcing turnovers, finally stood up and played a solid game. Even with those three terrible turnovers, Wisco only allowed 13 points, and the touchdown came on a fluky play that was Michael Irvin-esque pass interference. Finally, guys looked assignment sure, and the linebackers played like the studs they are-- Levy, especially, looked awesome, though he did drop that pick. And coach Hankiwitz and the rest of the defense staff finally opened up their bags of tricks-- how many times did the nickel back, Aaron Henry blitz? Hell, I think he's now the team's sack leader. Did you see the zone blitzes UW ran? (Shaugnessey had his almost interception on one of them.) They weren't totally dominant, obviously-- Iowa had a couple decent drives, and UW failed to create a turnover. But generally, the D stalled Hawky when it counted, flew to the ball, and made excellent tackles. Well done, defense.

The offense was a different story. I didn't want to mention it in the pre-game post, but until last night, Donovan hadn't turned the ball over all season. Yeah, that ended pretty quickly and in irritating fashion when Donovan stood and watched a blitzing linebacker run right at him and hit him at fully speed on Bucky's first offensive possession. The ball went flying out, and Iowa recovered twenty or so yards behind the line of scrimmage, killing what had looked like a solid scoring drive. Sadly, what happened here was symptomatic of Donovan's main problem as a quarterback-- he has tunnel vision. He doesn't see the whole field, and apparently, doesn't even see things right in front of his face. On that fumble, PJ had left the backfield and was split out wide. He was open. The Iowa linebacker saw the backfield was empty, realized no one would be there to pick him up , and blitzed. Throw the ball to PJ! He's your blitz release valve, as it were. That's a recurring problem-- Donovan forces middle-deep balls and misses wide open guys in the flat. We have pretty good skill position players-- give them the ball short and let them run.

Also, although Donovan's passing did not inspire confidence, fans should take heart-- the Badgers were able to run the ball against an excellent defense. I'm going to be positive, and take this as a sign that the offensive line is finally rounding into shape. Because I don't believe there's a better defensive line than Iowa's in the Big Ten. So if UW can run on the Hawks, that bodes very well for the rest of the season.

So I'm playing Professor Positive with this game-- the passing game was bad, UW drastically lost the turnover battle, but still the Badgers triumphed. I think that shows improvement, as bizarre as it may sound. Hope that continues.